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Thursday, October 21, 2004

1 State, 2 State, Red State, Blue State

Kerry may have bagged a goose today, but he still doesn't have all his ducks in a row. A recent article in the Miami Herald, Poll: Kerry hasn't secured 'blue' swing states points out:
Sen. John Kerry has not yet locked up his base of swing states that voted Democratic four years ago


He likely has to win all of the "blue" states ? color coded on election maps for states that voted Democratic in 2000 ? AND pick up at least some electoral votes from "red" states carried by Bush four years ago. That's because the blue states weren't enough for an Electoral College victory in 2000, and they have lost another seven electoral votes since then through post-2000 redistricting to reflect population shifts to the South and Southwest.

If Kerry doesn't hold all of the blue states, he has to win away even more red states.
The article points out that of six key blue swingstates, Kerry leads in 3 (by less than the margin of error), is tied in one, and is trailing in two.

If the polling data were a perfect representation of voter turnout in those states, Kerry would be losing the election because he needs not only all of the blue 'Gore' states, but he also has to take a at least one big red "Bush" state or several smaller red states to secure enough electoral votes to win the election. If Kerry loses any of the blue 'Gore' states, he has to take even more red "Bush" states than he would need had he been able to take all the blue states from the 2000 election.

This is not to say that Kerry cannot or will not capture all the blue states and then some, this merely points out that he has yet to secure the important contested states that voted for Gore in the 2000; states Kerry will need if he has any hopes of taking out the incumbent President.

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